By Paarth Shah, REALTOR® · July 31, 2026 · The Peninsula (San Mateo County)
San Mateo County home prices have appreciated over the long run, but the pace changes a lot year to year, and 2026 is a good example of how much the answer depends on the time frame and property type.
In the near term, recent gains are modest to moderate depending on the measure. Zillow put the average home value up about 1.6% over the year ending May 2026. Redfin and Compass data showed the countywide median up roughly 2.5% over the three months ending May 2026. Brokerage reports weighted toward single-family homes ran higher, with one Peninsula team citing prices up about 7.5% year over year in the second quarter of 2026 and condos up roughly 12% in the same period. So a fair summary of recent appreciation is low single digits countywide, higher for single-family homes.
Looking back further, the trend has generally been upward with sharp swings. In 2015, the countywide median reportedly jumped from about $843,000 to $960,000, a gain near 14% in a single year. In early 2025, prices were up around 11% year over year. The Federal Reserve's All-Transactions House Price Index for the county documents this long climb since the 1970s and is a useful source for anyone wanting the full history rather than a single snapshot.
What drives it? The Peninsula sits between San Francisco and Silicon Valley, so demand is tied to high-paying employment, especially in technology. Supply is the other half: land is limited, and new construction is constrained, so even steady demand pushes prices up. Strong schools and commute access add to it. When those forces line up, appreciation accelerates. When rates rise or the job market softens, gains slow or briefly reverse.
Here is the honest caution. Past appreciation does not guarantee future returns. The county's history includes both double-digit years and flat or down periods, and short-term timing can matter a great deal. Real estate here has rewarded long holding periods more reliably than short ones, but no one can promise that pattern will repeat. Treat any single growth number as a starting point, not a forecast.
If you would like a clearer read on how appreciation applies to a specific home or neighborhood, I am happy to look at the numbers with you. You can reach me through the contact page or at paarth@brokerbela.com.
Recent appreciation has run in the low single digits countywide and higher for single-family homes in 2026, on top of a long upward trend since the 1970s, though gains vary widely by year and past performance does not guarantee future returns.
Sources
This is general market commentary, not financial, investment, or legal advice; figures are as of publication and can change. Verify specifics, including any school assignments, ratings, or boundaries, independently. Bela Realty & Investments is committed to Equal Housing Opportunity and does not steer clients toward or away from any neighborhood on the basis of a protected characteristic.