By Paarth Shah, REALTOR® · July 20, 2026 · Silicon Valley / San Jose
"Are San Jose home prices going down?" is a fair question to ask in 2026, and the honest answer is: mostly flat, with small moves in both directions depending on which slice of the market you look at. There is no clear crash and no runaway boom in the current data.
Here is what the recent numbers show. Over the three months ending in spring 2026, the median sale price in San Jose was around $1.5 million, down about 1.4% from the same period a year earlier (Redfin). At the same time, the median price per square foot was near $889, up a slight 0.7% year over year. Those two facts together describe a market that is essentially holding, not falling off. Price per square foot is often the cleaner signal because it adjusts for the mix of homes that happen to sell in a given month.
Zoom out to Santa Clara County and you see the same push and pull. One measure of single-family resale homes showed the average sale price up close to 5% year over year, while the median was down a couple of percent (Compass, Bay Area Market Reports). When averages rise and medians dip, it usually means the higher end is active while the middle is steadier or slightly softer. That is a normalizing market, not a declining one.
For a buyer, the practical takeaway is that you are not staring at a falling knife, but you also are not competing in the frenzy of a few years ago. Well-priced homes in strong school areas still move quickly and can draw multiple offers. Homes that are overpriced or need work are sitting longer and are where you may find room to negotiate. The average across the market hides that split, so the right question is not "is San Jose going down" but "how is this specific home priced relative to what is actually selling."
A note on forecasts: some analysts project modest gains of a few percent through 2026, but a forecast is not a guarantee, and rates can shift the picture quickly. It is more useful to track real closed sales in the neighborhood you care about than to lean on any single prediction.
If you would like a read on a specific San Jose neighborhood, including what is actually closing and where there is negotiating room, I am happy to pull recent comps with you. Reach me through the contact page or at paarth@brokerbela.com.
Prices are broadly flat rather than falling. The median sale price was down about 1.4% year over year in spring 2026 while price per square foot was up slightly, describing a normalizing market with variation by neighborhood and price point.
Sources
This is general market commentary, not financial, investment, or legal advice; figures are as of publication and can change. Verify specifics, including any school assignments, ratings, or boundaries, independently. Bela Realty & Investments is committed to Equal Housing Opportunity and does not steer clients toward or away from any neighborhood on the basis of a protected characteristic.